A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
