Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
